Posted by: jonreagan | May 1, 2008

Next Windows: Make It or Break It

Windows Vista has not been the best release for Microsoft, plain and simple.  Sure, sales have done relatively well, but never before has there been such dissatisfaction on the part of consumers, and most sales came from pre-installations on new PCs.  Many customers are apparently trying to hold onto Windows XP, the previous version.

In one of many troubling problems facing Microsoft, users do not see enough value in Vista to upgrade.  The new features are mediocre, it is more expensive than Windows XP, and comes in six different versions, all seemingly focused on limitations rather than features.  Microsoft is also said to be halting XP sales on June 30, likely to make many customers unhappy, and bring them to disliking Microsoft more and more.

Even more troubling, Apple is creeping up behind Microsoft in market share.  Some estimates place Apple Mac OS X market share at around 10%.  Linux distributions, such as Ubuntu, are also a problem, since they are often free to obtain and install, and are becoming ever easier for average users to use.  These problems are creating a big problem for Microsoft.

One thing is clear:  the next version of Microsoft Windows will be a crucial one.

For one thing, Microsoft must release their next version within the next two years.   Vista took 5 years to develop, and convienently gave the competition 5 years to fight against the software giant.  Five years is a long time, and allowed for Windows XP to become to de-facto standard.  Now, they are faced with tougher competition, and reluctant customers to upgrade to the new system.

The next version of Windows, often called Windows 7, has been rumored to be a modular system, one that can be modified for a particular purpose.  Modularity is needed, mainly because Windows is becoming too large and as a result has become ever slower.

Microsoft often fights against Linux through a war of words because they cannot offer a product of comparable price, and Open Source Software challenges the traditional value of software.  For this reason, Microsoft needs to release the next version of Windows for cheaper than offered before.  The current price is expensive, and to get a good version can cost a considerable amount of money, often too much than the average user would want to spend.

The next release is crucial.  If this next release of Windows flops, then what will leave the door open for competition for another 2-3 years.  Windows will not disappear from the market, although in my opinion, it may become a minority in the desktop market in the next decade if Microsoft does not change their ways, and focus on the consumer rather than the bottom line.

Personally, I’ll stick with Ubuntu. Microsoft can do what they want.  Now, I think they are beginning to feel the consequences for their previous actions, and will hopefully learn from them to make things better for their consumers.

Responses

I’ve heard this about every release of windows since 95, and I’d imagine that it was being said prior as well, just not to me.

The problem with this line of thinking is that focusing on whether or not Windows dominates the market is that it draws attention away from other software vendors that are equally not free.

Say Microsoft disappears tomorrow and Mac is the new giant. Would that be any better? No. So who cares really if the next windows brings MS crashing down? We still have so much further to go before free software is the “practical” paradigm. We even have non-free linux (hell even ubuntu isn’t totally free yet).

To tell you the truth though I don’t really care, I don’t honestly. As long as I have the option and everyone else has the option of free software over slaveware then it becomes their burden to choose right?

I think that one thing that is really terrible about this whole push for “the year of the linux desktop” (which is still years away anyhow) is that people are losing sight of the value of free software, and the more that happens the less relevant linux becomes.

For this next release, it is especially relevant. As I mentioned, Windows will not disappear, but it can lose the top spot.

If Apple takes over, well, let me just put it this way: Antitrust!
Sure, the software freedom is there, but you must remember that the computer market is not going to take free software easily. It challenges the value of software.

Ubuntu may not be completely free, but it is going with Open Source software, and as for drivers, it’s following World Domination 201, which I support. There’s always a preference to free drivers, but when a proprietary one needs to be used, it will be used. I doubt that Ubuntu will ever be completely free, but I do not care. For example, I would like to see Ubuntu get DVD support. As long as I can pass it on and install it as many times I need to, and for free, I am happy.

The push of the “year of the desktop” is happening because of people just like me. I like Linux, and specifically Ubuntu, and are pushing to make it the other contender in the desktop market. Without the work of thousands of Ubuntu users dedicated to this same cause, there (many argue that the “year of the desktop” was 2007) would be no year of the desktop. Instead of putting around yabbering on about how all software needs to be free, we are doing something about it by bringing Linux to the mass market.

Sorry… bit of a rant there.

Thanks for the comment. :)

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